Notes

In the wake of a horrendous 2022, stocks and bonds started off the new year with vigor.  The macroeconomic environment has begun flashing green signals.  Covid restrictions are largely over.  Inflation is gradually abating.  The Federal Reserve Board has begun slowing its interest rate increases.  The price of oil is below $75 a barrel.  Corporate profits are stead

Across the board, 2022 was a challenging year for investors.  Stocks had their worst year since 2008 with the S&P 500 Index dropping 19.4 percent.  The possibility of a coming recession was the main cause of investors’ pessimism.  To make matters worse, fixed-income assets (bonds) took a beating in 2022 as well.  The U.S.

Investor sentiment is quite unsettled these days.  Most market participants have memories of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, if not the economic malaise of the 1970s, and wonder if we are headed for a reprise of those dark days.  It is a reasonable concern given all the unusual economic and geo-political events of recent times.  Stubbornly high inflation, ongoing disorder in di

In the never-ending quest to divine the future of stock market returns, the pointy-headed prognosticators of Wall Street are having conniptions trying to predict where the U.S. economy is headed these days.  The experts’ forecasts range all over the place from cautiously optimistic to mildly complacent to totally terrified.

The current economic worries and geopolitical uncertainty have put many investors on the defensive – and understandably so.  Surging inflation, rising interest rates, continuing Covid disruption (especially in Asia), and now a serious war in Eastern Europe are presenting a unique mix of challenges for the global economy.  Nervous investors have triggered heightened volatility in

Currently, the bogeyman most feared by investors is inflation.  In our daily lives, we have all seen evidence of rising prices.  Energy, food, housing, automobiles all seem to be more expensive than they were just a year ago.  The official data show this is not a figment of our imaginations.

As we all know, the coronavirus remains a threat to the wellbeing of our citizenry despite the successful rollout of mass-immunization programs.  New cases are still cropping up all over the globe, though at a slower pace than a few months ago.  The virus is certainly still with us.

By any measure, 2020 proved to be a year that we all would like to forget.  To say the least, everything seemed a bit off-kilter last year.

Alfred E. Neuman, the mascot for humor magazine Mad, is famous for his tag line: “What, me worry?”  Well, that seems to be the current attitude of many stock investors these days as the market indices have clawed back most of the humongous losses triggered by the coronavirus lockdowns.  It is hard to see how the bounce-back makes sense.

For the equity markets, 2020 began with a continuation of the rousing gains that were posted in 2019.  The economy was chugging along.  Unemployment was low; wages and GDP were rising.  By mid-February, the S&P 500 Index had reached an all-time high of 3386.  The future looked bright.  Ahh, the good old days.