Notes

In recent years, several momentous issues affecting the global economy have come to the fore.  Conflict with Iran, tariff wars, AI uncertainty, Ukraine, and relentless climate change are often featured in the news.  All of those could have profound, lasting effects on the economic activity that keeps the world running smoothly.

Despite escalating worries about the sustainability of the AI buildout and inflation, the S&P 500 Index rebounded nicely in Q2 after struggling in the first quarter of 2026.

                                         "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.” – Warren Buffett

Here is an interesting thought attributed to Bertrand Russell:

                “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

In the early weeks of 2025, equity markets continued the steady climb that had commenced two years ago, and the S&P 500 Index established an all-time high on February 19.  Since then, however, stocks have declined steadily with the S&P 500 finishing the first quarter down 4.6 percent.  Two factors seem to be contributing to the recent sell-off.

U.S. equity markets have enjoyed more than two years of steady appreciation mainly due to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure by tech behemoths such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon.  It has been a remarkable run, but can it last?

In the third quarter, investor optimism grew, inspired by improving inflation results and a Federal Reserve rate cut.  U.S. stock markets experienced a broadening of the rally that commenced in October of 2022.  The S&P 500 Index continued to hit record highs finishing the quarter up six percent.

In the second quarter, markets shrugged off concerns about inflation and potential rate moves by the Federal Reserve.  Buoyed by AI enthusiasm and mega-cap outperformance, U.S. equities moved upwards, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 4%.

It was another great quarter for the S&P 500 Index, which represents the top companies in America.  That makes two quarters in a row that the return on the index has exceeded 10%, an extraordinarily rare occurrence.

What a difference a year makes.  This is from last year's recap: “Stocks [in 2022] had their worst year since 2008.  The possibility of a coming recession was the main cause of investors’ pessimism.”  In the year just ended, we saw nothing even close to an economic downturn proving the expert forecasters wrong again for the umpteenth time.  Instead, the